Summer Hurricanes & Winter Rain

The National Hurricane Center reports that Tropical Storm Carlos, now well off the coast of Acapulco, is about to develop into a hurricane and head northwest. At this early point in the game, some computer models have Carlos going inland, some have it headed for Cabo, but most have it headed offshore. Nonetheless, all boating interests in Mexico need to pay attention.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have predicted that this will be a lighter than normal year in the Atlantic/Caribbean for tropical storms, while it’s likely that there will be a greater than normal number of storms in the Eastern Pacific, meaning Mexico.

For what it’s worth, storm centers don’t have to come close to shore to create damage. For example, Hurricane Blanca, which didn’t come within 150 miles of mainland Mexico, nonetheless kicked up big enough surf to slam a big rock into the steel beach gate at the condos Doña de Mallorca rents out at Punta Mita. It knocked the gate out of action. On the other hand, surfers renting the units loved Blanca’s big surf.

In more positive news for everyone in California, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center reports that El Niño looks to be pretty strong going into the fall. The import of this is that a strong El Niño correlates well with rainy winters in California. Some forecasters are saying there is an 85% chance that El Niño will remain strong into the winter. Based on this and the fact that Latitude 38’s office, perched beside a creek in Mill Valley, floods every 15 years, we’ve signed up for expensive flood insurance.