Carlos, the Chihuahua of Mexican Hurricanes

For such a tiny tropical storm/hurricane, Carlos has been a real yapper. Early on he was projected, long range, to be the second hurricane to threaten Cabo and La Paz. Then, small as he was, he surprised everyone by biting Acapulco. Ten boats sank and many more were significantly damaged, perhaps because nobody took Carlos too seriously.

For the last couple of days forecasts have changed significantly as Carlos has worked his way northwest along the coast. One day he looks as if he’s going to slam into land south of Barra de Navidad. Twelve hours later forecasts have him going offshore. Now he’s shown to be tracing the coast. Similarly, he’s gone from hurricane to tropical storm to hurricane and back to tropical storm. Forecasters explain that tiny — in terms of breadth — hurricanes are much more prone than larger ones to dramatic changes in intensity and direction.

At the most recent forecast, Carlos is forecast to hit Cabo Corrientes, at the southwest tip of Banderas Bay, Wednesday evening, as a tropical depression. This is better news than anyone could have expected just a few days ago, but given Carlos’ history of unpredictability, it’s still too early for anyone to let their guard down.