The 20th annual Baja Ha-Ha rally got off to a spectacular start yesterday with the traditional Costume Kickoff Party at the Shelter Island West Marine super store. Thanks to generous support from Mexico Tourism, a terrific mariachi band set a festive mood.

As always, the vast majority of fleet members were decked out in elaborate costumes. Predictably, there was a huge contingent of swashbuckling pirates and saucy wenches. Everyone was offered authentic beef, pork and chicken tacos, plus a boatload of cool libations. Representing Mexico Tourism, Alejandro Santander gave the fleet a heartfelt welcome to his country, acknowledging that maritime travelers are an important segment of Mexico’s overall tourism market.

Prior to the official start of Leg One this morning, the fleet participated in a parade through the harbor, cheered on by local well-wishers. Aboard the sport fishing boat Dolphin, Mexican dignitaries, San Diego city officials, Coast Guard officers and an assortment of print, TV and radio press, recorded the fleet’s departure. Sharon Bernni-Cloward of the San Diego Port Tenants Association and Ken Franke of the Sportfishing Association of California went above and beyond in organizing the parade, inviting the media, and welcoming Mexican Immigration and Tourism officials aboard the parade committee boat.

Editor’s note: The Assistant Poobah, Andy Turpin, was supposed to have called in with an offshore weather report but he’s clearly too busy to check in. We’ll have a full report in a few days.

For the last several years, we’ve closely followed the exploits of one particularly spunky British granny, Jeanne Socrates. On July 8, Jeanne finished her third solo circumnavigation — this one nonstop — and, at 70, became the oldest woman to have achieved the feat.

Jeanne is now on her way south to Mexico aboard her Najad 380 Nereida and stopped in the Bay for a couple weeks to visit old friends. Tiburon YC has kindly invited her to give a presentation on her latest voyage, which will be held this Friday, November 1 at the club. The bar opens at 6 p.m. and Jeanne’s talk will start at 7. RSVP to Alice Shinn at (415) 272-0562.

So what does Jeanne’s future hold?  She told us that she’s looking forward to cruising Mexico and beyond in company with other boats, and maybe even taking on crew now and again. She may be slowing down — all the better to enjoy the scenery — but it will be a long time before she stops. 

In May of this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, citing unusually warm ocean temperatures, predicted that there would be 7 to 11 hurricanes in the Atlantic / Caribbean this season, and that three to six could become major hurricanes with winds of over 110 knots.

With one month to go in the Atlantic / Caribbean season, the forecast has, as many of the previous forecasts have, proven to be way off. Way, way off. To date there have been just two hurricanes, Ingrid and Humberto, and both of them barely rated minimum Category 1 status.

Chris Fogarty, a honcho for Canadian government forecasters — yes, they get hurricanes, thanks to the Gulfstream — says the Canucks abstain from such predictions, and suggests that U.S. forecasters might think about doing the same. The problem, Fogarty says, is such inaccurate forecasts hurt the credibility of the weather services. No kidding. We’ve been following government and private industry hurricane forecasts pretty closely for more than 20 years, and their record has been dismal.

To our knowledge nobody makes similar projections for the Eastern Pacific — Mexico — because most don’t strike land. But this year seems like a normal year, with six tropical storms and eight hurricanes. The most recent, and hopefully the last of the year, is long-lived Raymond. The dude started off down by the Guatemalan border, as most Eastern Pacific hurricanes do, headed due west, then made a 90-degree turn north, and is projected to drift northeast in the general direction of Cabo. The most recent forecasts suggest that, because of cooler water, Cabo won’t be hit and the Ha-Ha fleet will be far from any threat that Raymond might pose. Not trusting forecasts, the Grand Poobah will naturally be monitoring Raymond‘s progress, or lack thereof, for the Ha-Ha fleet.