Two, Not One, Hurricanes Forecast for P.V.

According to various hurricane forecasting services, Tropical Storms Jova and Irwin were expected to develop into hurricanes, then make beelines for Banderas Bay / Puerto Vallarta, making landfall on late Monday night and Thursday respectively. The vast majority of Mexican hurricanes travel to the northwest, paralleling the coast and then heading offshore. These two storms are unique in that they are many hundreds of miles offshore already, and would be heading toward Puerto Vallarta from the WSW! Late season hurricanes can be weird like that.

Before anybody gets too worked up, the National Weather Service cautions that the margin of error for the landfall of storms four days out is, in the Eastern Pacific, 175 to 225 miles. So it’s entirely possible the storms could make landfall as far north as Mazatlan or further south than Manzanillo. Indeed, this morning’s forecast shows that Irwin, the second of the two storms, is now a Category 1 hurricane and is projected to take a path several hundred miles to the south of Puerto Vallarta.

Jova, which is closer and more worrisome to land, has a new track that suggests the eye will hit about 20 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, which is on the southern tip of Banderas Bay. Any landfall south of Banderas Bay would be a great thing for mariners at Puerto Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta and La Cruz, as the mountains on or near the coast tower from a few thousand feet to 8,000 feet. Mountains like that really sap the power of hurricanes.

While it’s still too early for hurricane watches or warnings to have been posted along the coast of Mexico, both of these storms obviously need close monitoring. If you have a boat or property in the general target areas, get ready to make preparations. There are a number of weather factors that could dramatically affect both Jova and Irwin, so be prepared for possible major changes in direction and strength.

In other weather news, we’re told that the extreme summer heat of Mexico has been broken. While the daytime highs in places such as Loreto, La Paz and Mazatlan are still hitting the mid-90s, they’ve had nights where the temps have even dropped below 70 degrees. After another sizzling summer, these folks are having to put on their winter ski gear to make it through the nearly frozen nights.

These colder temperatures give hope that Jova and Irwin might well be the last tropical storms of the season.